The state's long tradition of re-electing incumbents has somewhat masked the fact that currently Democrats enjoy enormous advantages on the ground. With an all blue congressional delegation, and a Democratic trifecta at the state house, there are few states where Democrats have such a wide open path for implementing substantial change. And none of this even mentions the fact that the Vice President calls the state home.
So what kind of results can you get from the kind of legislature we see above? Governor Jack Markell managed to wind up with a $320 million surplus, allowing the state to pay down some of their debt while increasing funding for important programs, enacting civil unions, and legalizing the medicinal use of marijuana. Other than token Republican complaints, this style of smart governing does not seem to be creating enemies for Markell, who will face re-election next fall.
On the Senate side of things, Republicans appear to hold a wider variety of districts, rather than being as marginalized as they are in the house. Keep in mind for those who are not up on the Delaware maps, but the two chamber's districts don't follow each other's boundaries in any meaningful way. I'm not quite sure why a Republican is in such a Democratic district, unless I've either unintentionally ballooned Democratic strength there, or if there's something I simply don't know about. Keep in mind that while House Democrats picked up two seats in Delaware last fall, Democrats lost two from their ranks on the Senate side. Either way, the perspective of a native would be welcome, and I"ll be happy to dive in and try to find the error if that is indeed the case.
All these results ought to make clear the tactical immaturity of the Tea Party Express and their supporters. There was one Republican who could win this Senate seat for them - that's one Republican whose party registration might be the deciding factor in flipping control of the chamber. They managed to take that one politician, beat him mercilessly, and replace him with a woman who couldn't move a single percent past that generic gap during the best election year for Republicans in a long time. That money could have been spent in plenty more useful places: trying to finish off Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, who only squeezed by District Attorney Ken Buck by a few votes; Senator Harry Reid, who while also facing an incompetent candidate, was in a far more electorally precarious position, or propping up Joe Miller in Alaska, who by all accounts would have been a real bomb-thrower in the Senate. Instead, they attached their carts to the little engine that could not, and find themselves spending to try and take back the Senate again this time around.
The politics of the Tea Party Express, and their various affiliates, ignore reality at the expense of ideology. So long as they never question what kind of candidate a district needs in order to win, they can keep shoving very conservative Republicans down the throats of voters, with the knowledge that their donors will remain happy with the promotion of a single ideology. And if voters adjust their preferences over time to expect the Tea Party platform as that of the Republican party, than they have managed to win the war without winning the battle. It is precisely this reason that when Democrats face of against Tea Party candidates, painting them as extreme should be priority number one. If Democrats win the fights while letting them move the goalposts, we'll allow a highly flawed political strategy to undo our own electoral successes.
In closing, I would also note that thus far, I have not been able to get my hands on clear data about how the new district plans correspond to old voting districts - I'll be happy to provide ranking scores for the new-look legislature as soon as someone can find that data, just let me know at matthew.breuer@yale.edu
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