Fake Dems Fall in Wisconsin

Last night, the six Democrats attempting to win recall elections for the Wisconsin State Senate faced their first electoral challenge, albeit an unusual one. In a classic Walker-inspired maneuver, the Wisconsin GOP (recently headed up by national GOP Chairman Reince Priebus) entered six anti-recall "Democrats" into the races, forcing each challenger to burn money and energy to win a primary. While they certainly would have loved to win, the good luck wasn't with them last night, as the real Democratic candidates won every primary, with all but one race decided by a solid 20% margin.

The only question mark last night was District 10, where Shelley Moore maintained a narrow lead throughout the count, and finished with only 55% of the vote. Moore, a teacher who was laid off as a result of Walker cuts in January, differs from the other Democratic candidates with experience in public office. The choice of Moore as a candidate seemed an inspired one, so long as she could get her name out there. But after last night's performance, I think it is clear that of the six Senate seats, this is one where we might be in a bit of trouble. Moore has to better define herself to the public - she is a perfect symbol of what this entire debate has been about, but if people don't know that, her name recognition is going to sink her on election day.



For reference, above is the district index for the Wisconsin State Senate - recalled Senators are highlighted in Gray. As I said back when this website was first launching, despite the huge populist support in Wisconsin, this was going to be an incredibly tough recall election. Unlike Ohio, Florida, New Jersey, and Michigan - where new Republican governors are watching their popularity tank - Scott Walker still has fervent support, and Republicans are energized to validate his agenda through holding these seats. With the exception of Kapanke's seat, which is a must-win for Democrats, the other five races are an uphill battle - all would be expected to fall Republican if I was just writing a generic election preview. The engagement of the union community since last fall however may understand potential Democratic support in some of these districts, but either way, it is Democrats who have the hill to climb if they are going to win. For Shelley Moore, she is going to need as many people pushing her up that hill as possible.