For all the attention that midwestern states have received the past few months by the online progressive community, Republicans in New Hampshire have been doing everything possible to regress the state's laws. Led by their tea-flavored house leadership, Republicans have worked on "right to work", voter ID, deadly force, parental notification for abortions, and the New Hampshire Executive Committee recent voted to defund Planned Parenthood. Without Governor John Lynch's veto power, my neighbors would be looking a lot more comfortable below the Mason-Dixon Line rather than sharing the Connecticut River - but that hasn't stopped everything.
First, a note about the data above - because of the size of New Hampshire's house districts (they range from 1 to 13 members), I had to change up the way I present data. Each district is shaded with the color of the party who holds a majority of the seats in that district - in the few instances that the district is split, the district has been colored purple. If this is your first time looking at LDI data, you need to know that the "NH-DI" column is a measurement of how much greater the margin of victory for a Republican or Democrat is expected to be compared to the state on average. The 50-50 data, to the right, is simply the raw unadjusted score. The Senate, ringing in at 24 members, is much more simple to present, I have presented that data in the same manner that I always do.
Despite the small advantage the index finds in favor of Democrats, in many ways the results I've found in New Hampshire are worse for Democrats than they were in states like Wisconsin and Ohio, where Democrats had less of a generic edge. Of the 57 districts that the index indicates Democrats have an advantage, Republicans manage to hold most of the seats in a majority of those districts. While that is a huge advantage, the institutional factors somewhat distort their advantage. When districts are so small, slight changes in preferences can wind up flipping a massive number of seats. This makes the Republican majority look much stronger than it truly is - a rejection of the Republican legislative agenda (of which there is plenty to find objectionable could easily swing the pendulum back the other way, and give Democrats a governing majority.
Consider House Speaker Bill O'Brien (Hillsborough 4) as a case study. Under his guidance, the legislature has been focused on passing as much red meat to satisfy conservatives as possible. While this strategy has rendered him with little ability to effectively govern, he and the rest of the members of his new majority depend on big conservative turnout if they are to have any chance at maintaining their majorities. In his case, he is governing from a district where generic results point to a 50-50 tie, and doing so as if he came from a place far more conservative than any district in New Hampshire. While it is never easy to unseat a legislative leader, O'Brien represents a unique chance to dismantle the Republican caucus from the top.
I noted above that Republicans have been governing as though they represented a different state than their current home. That is not to say, however, that Democratic control should be thought of as a guarantee like in much of New England. Despite my girlfriend's protestations that New Hampshire is nothing more than an upside-down Vermont, Maine is where the real similarities lie. Consider the generic scores for both states - Vermont's Democratic edge is almost twice that of New Hampshire's - instead, New Hampshire Democrats have edged out just ahead of their underperforming eastern neighbors. However, comparing the scores from the three New England states surveyed presents a pretty remarkable similarity. All three are anchored by a Democratic stronghold - Burlington, Portland, and Hanover, nearly 50% of their seats are within 10% of the state average, and then each trails off into some rural territory that is slightly more Republican at the end. The graph below overlays the three scores, and yields what I think is a pretty remarkable result.
Lastly, just a little housekeeping. If you are the RSS feed type, it is easier than ever to subscribe to our feed - just click the RSS logo on the homepage. Also, I'm working on rehauling the website a little bit - please feel free to offer suggestions on things you would like to see, or that you believe need changing. Finally, the LDI is on the road this week - I'm working with the team at Begin Blue, a Democratic startup focused on providing training so that young people can be ready to make a meaningful difference in 2012 campaigns from the moment they are hired - check them out if you get the chance.
interesting data, great analysis, loved the part about your girlfriend!
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