Starting the Decade Right: New Jersey, Round 2

After some work over the weekend, I've put together the preliminary data for the 2011-2020 New Jersey legislature. While this is a good start, it will be much more valuable to look at after fall elections, when there is some real data to kick around, but I wanted to present this with a few notes:



- Some readers had suggested that the 40th district appears too Democratic by my measurements, and I'm inclined to believe that - however, updating the districts moves it closer to where it should be. It was originally the 13th most Democratic district, now it is the 19th, but the real change is in LDI score, moving from D+10 to D+4. The 50/50 numbers indicate that a generic Dem would have a 56-44 advantage, but I'm hoping that the static goes away after 2011.

- Because the previous map was so solid for Democrats, they haven't really be able to do much to shore up their more vulnerable members. The real legislators at risk are those who broke with their party and voted with Christie recently - as there is virtually no justification for voting like a Republican if you're a Democrat when no one is representing strongly conservative territory.

- The big mover? District 4, which shot up from the 18th to 13th most Democratic, making it the most blue territory where a Republican still holds office. With an expected generic result in the neighborhood of 58-42, that should be an easy pick-up that would quickly counter Republicans winning any of their friendlier targets.