New Jersey: Before or After the Storm?

Today begins the first of a two part series looking at New Jersey - first as how the districts have existed for the past decade, and then as the districts will exist following this fall's election. This is the first chance I've had to look at a state before and after redistricting, which offers a lot of exciting opportunities.



Like several states before it, New Jersey's legislature is configured in 40 districts that elect one senator and two representatives. What stands out immediately as unique about Jersey is the fact that only one two-member district split their vote between the two parties, unprecedented compared to the other multi-member states we have looked at so far.



In fact, in terms of competitiveness, the map New Jersey has been using for the past year is certainly unique, in that it is hardly competitive. In fact, when you graph out the distribution of scores compared to the other states we've surveyed, New Jersey is entirely different - with large numbers of safe seats, a sharp drop into the handful of competitive areas, and then another drop into safe Republican territory. But it isn't just the data that tells the story, as Rutgers professor Ingrid Reed has remarked that in any given year, only three to five legislative races are truly up for grabs.



This is the very reason why the 2011 election is shaping up to be so challenging for New Jersey Democrats. The election of Chris Christie wasn't all that unique given the abysmal reception Democrats were receiving back in the fall of 2009 - what was different, however, was that Democrats maintained control of the legislature, thanks to an incredibly friendly map. Even though the New Jersey redistricting commission ultimately approved the Democratic drawn map for the next decade, what is revealing is that while not happy by any stretch, Republicans recognize that this map is a significant improvement for them over the status quo.

2011 isn't 2009 - there are plenty of things that have changed, and the environment isn't nearly as Republican as it was back then. That being said, Democrats aren't out of the water. Chris Christie's popularity may have fallen, but it's not clear that it has come to the benefit of New Jersey Democrats, and this time, they'll be waging that defense on a less friendly map. How less friendly will be the subject of our next update, which I hope you all check out.