Because of Washington's quirks, there isn't separate data for the Senate and House - and instead of using House results as the state legislative portion of the index like usual, I've used Senate results, as otherwise I would've been averaging the performance of candidates in the two races in each district. Also, for the first time this week, I'll be including 50/50 numbers in my post. LDI scores are always relative to the respective state, but the 50/50 data measures every district compared to one that is evenly split by Democrats and Republicans. This will hopefully allow people to more easily understand where districts stand compared to other states, and the country as a whole.
Washington fits somewhere in the middle of the states investigated thus far. Democrats hold a 54-46 generic edge, but both sides hold fairly strong bases of support to rely on. Unlike some of the midwestern states I've looked at, Washington Democrats remain in a strong position, still holding majorities in both chambers. There was some talk during the height of tea party fanaticism that for whatever reason, that fervor wasn't taking over the West Coast, and so far as Washington is concerned, that seems to be true - unlike in states that have come before, Washington Republicans don't hold any outrageous seats that look like obvious Democratic pickups - seats are split just about where you would expect them to be - Democrats hold all but one seat that are more Democratic than the state on average, as well as 11 past that mark. They've let one seat slip on the Senate side, but again, things are much more evenly distributed here than in the other states released thus far.
The last graph here below uses the 50/50 numbers to plot out the 6 states released thus far. States are listed from left to right in order of generic Democratic performance. The line stretches from the most Democratic to the most Republican district, with the bar covering the middle 50% of districts. Washington's closest relative seems to be Wisconsin, which has just a slightly larger range of districts, but otherwise remains very similar.
very interesting! I especially like the new style of graph at the end! keep it up, this project is both necessary and exciting!
ReplyDeleteI've long said that the district I live in, the 26th LD, is the most swing district in the entire state. This is #30 on your graph and your 50/50 shows it as R+0. It is the only +0 district in the graph.
ReplyDeleteSo now I have proof. We really are the most swing district in the state. It's not just our local Democratic leaders saying so.